October 02, 2024
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Projection

New York City Cash Balance Projection December 2023

Last Updated December 1, 2023

NYC Cash Balances ($ in Millions)

10/8/202310/15/202310/22/202310/29/202311/5/202311/12/202311/19/202311/26/2023$0.00$3,000.00$6,000.00$9,000.00$12,000.00
Start DateCurrent YearPrevious YearLowProjection Baseline-
10/3/2023$10,402.00$7,677.30
10/4/2023$10,122.50$7,897.40
10/5/2023$10,753.30$7,849.00
10/6/2023$11,473.80$8,036.60
10/10/2023$11,188.90$8,783.80
10/11/2023$11,272.90$8,494.50
10/12/2023$11,124.20$8,440.50
10/13/2023$10,906.90$8,607.00
10/16/2023$10,265.50$8,040.20
10/17/2023$10,355.60$7,494.60
10/18/2023$9,735.30$7,724.70
10/19/2023$9,560.00$7,272.60
10/20/2023$9,664.90$6,902.80
10/23/2023$9,375.60$6,864.60
10/24/2023$9,338.70$6,544.90
10/25/2023$10,205.40$7,052.50
10/26/2023$9,907.90$6,894.50
10/27/2023$10,102.10$6,891.20
10/30/2023$9,304.90$6,424.30
10/31/2023$8,928.90$5,370.40
11/1/2023$8,497.80$5,603.70
11/2/2023$8,946.50$6,735.10
11/3/2023$8,373.40$6,631.70
11/6/2023$8,403.80$6,663.70
11/7/2023$8,637.60$7,539.20
11/8/2023$9,021.70$7,237.10
11/9/2023$8,512.60$6,924.00
11/13/2023$8,213.30$6,521.00
11/14/2023$8,095.90$6,151.70
11/15/2023$8,578.40$6,607.30
11/16/2023$8,428.00$7,382.20
11/17/2023$7,484.60$6,651.50
11/20/2023$6,861.20$6,689.60
11/21/2023$6,893.60$6,394.10
11/22/2023$6,753.80$6,472.50
11/24/2023$5,638.80$5,541.00
11/27/2023$5,836.30$4,811.90
11/28/2023$6,133.10$4,473.00
11/29/2023$5,760.70$4,593.20
11/30/2023$5,353.30$4,274.80

The City’s cash balances usually dwindle in late November to early December, before the arrival of property tax payments which are due on January 1.  But this November, the City’s cash balances remained historically high for this time of year, averaging $7.521 billion, compared to $6.195 billion in November 2022 and $4.244 billion in November 2021.

New York City’s economy continues to expand, benefitting from growth in employment and the return of tourism. Tax revenues for the first quarter of FY 2024 grew 4.5% from the same quarter last year.  The City collected almost $9.3 billion in property tax in 1Q24, an increase of $267 million from last year, with rising assessments driving the growth.  Personal income, including pass-through entity tax (PTET), and business taxes grew 23.3% and 9.7%, respectively.  The sales tax grew 4%, helped by higher prices and from rebounding activity in the tourism and hospitality sectors.  Hotel occupancy rates have almost fully recovered to pre-pandemic levels and average daily room rates rose to record levels, pointing to strong tourism demand. As a result, the hotel occupancy tax rose 6.3%.

During the last 12 months, cash balances have averaged $12.133 billion, compared to $7.655 billion at the same time last year.  New York City is starting December 1, 2023 with $5.353 billion in cash, above last year’s figure by $1.079 billion.  The City’s cash balance includes $1.954 billion in the Revenue Stabilization Fund (RSF), the City’s rainy-day fund. The majority of funds, $1.455 billion, were allocated to the RSF in fiscal year 2022.

For more information, please see the accompanying 1Q FY 2024 Quarterly Cash Report.

Projected Cash Balances (December 1st – March 31st)

NYC Projected Cash Balances ($ in Millions)

01-Dec-2305-Dec-2307-Dec-2311-Dec-2313-Dec-2315-Dec-2319-Dec-2321-Dec-2326-Dec-2328-Dec-2302-Jan-2404-Jan-2408-Jan-2410-Jan-2412-Jan-2417-Jan-2419-Jan-2423-Jan-2425-Jan-2429-Jan-2431-Jan-2402-Feb-2406-Feb-2408-Feb-2412-Feb-2414-Feb-2416-Feb-2421-Feb-2423-Feb-2427-Feb-2429-Feb-2404-Mar-2406-Mar-2408-Mar-2412-Mar-2414-Mar-2418-Mar-2420-Mar-2422-Mar-2426-Mar-2428-Mar-24$0.00$5,000.00$10,000.00$15,000.00$20,000.00
Start DateFY23 ActualsFY22 ActualsFY21 ActualsHighLowProjection Baseline (December 2023 forecast)
01-Dec-23$4,148.87$1,553.07$2,256.51$5,603.78$4,890.19$5,246.98
04-Dec-23$4,332.09$1,741.60$2,287.67$5,632.75$4,915.47$5,274.11
05-Dec-23$4,499.45$1,363.80$2,516.34$5,727.51$4,998.17$5,362.84
06-Dec-23$5,502.32$1,970.45$2,785.45$5,921.01$5,167.03$5,544.02
07-Dec-23$5,530.50$2,057.06$2,917.70$6,685.87$5,834.48$6,260.17
08-Dec-23$5,194.04$2,031.65$3,180.00$6,244.01$5,448.89$5,846.45
11-Dec-23$4,648.66$1,728.48$3,258.46$5,796.52$5,058.39$5,427.45
12-Dec-23$4,881.42$1,387.50$2,858.32$5,855.49$5,109.85$5,482.67
13-Dec-23$5,114.45$1,721.20$2,762.80$5,848.30$5,103.58$5,475.94
14-Dec-23$6,405.74$2,632.98$3,767.08$6,130.15$5,349.54$5,739.84
15-Dec-23$6,726.92$2,790.60$3,776.33$7,106.72$6,201.75$6,654.24
18-Dec-23$6,118.16$2,523.01$3,764.49$6,982.15$6,093.04$6,537.60
19-Dec-23$6,394.05$2,094.83$3,953.51$7,122.14$6,215.20$6,668.67
20-Dec-23$6,667.42$2,382.44$3,466.12$7,368.69$6,430.36$6,899.53
21-Dec-23$7,381.04$2,680.84$3,616.28$7,538.79$6,578.79$7,058.79
22-Dec-23$7,745.68$2,644.40$3,956.17$7,917.48$6,909.26$7,413.37
26-Dec-23$6,709.35$2,899.67$3,406.41$8,066.14$7,038.99$7,552.57
27-Dec-23$6,898.13$3,143.98$3,451.25$8,309.55$7,251.41$7,780.48
28-Dec-23$7,549.61$3,708.69$3,830.66$8,798.66$7,678.23$8,238.45
29-Dec-23$8,284.83$6,513.00$6,063.58$10,082.37$8,798.47$9,440.42
02-Jan-24$11,956.74$6,463.28$7,723.82$9,893.75$8,561.72$9,186.40
03-Jan-24$14,644.39$8,801.29$7,654.24$13,248.24$11,464.59$12,301.06
04-Jan-24$15,261.14$9,478.64$10,199.92$15,643.98$13,537.78$14,525.51
05-Jan-24$15,184.92$9,742.65$10,950.15$15,354.29$13,287.10$14,256.54
08-Jan-24$14,831.81$9,616.89$11,216.36$15,070.22$13,041.27$13,992.78
09-Jan-24$15,209.87$9,307.34$10,932.51$15,021.06$12,998.72$13,947.13
10-Jan-24$15,476.44$9,416.20$10,681.93$15,103.11$13,069.73$14,023.32
11-Jan-24$15,427.85$9,404.40$10,965.06$15,213.06$13,164.88$14,125.41
12-Jan-24$15,568.70$9,061.51$11,622.24$14,775.66$12,786.37$13,719.28
16-Jan-24$14,593.59$8,801.63$11,727.66$14,595.23$12,630.23$13,551.75
17-Jan-24$14,902.78$8,494.92$11,688.74$14,690.21$12,712.42$13,639.93
18-Jan-24$14,507.48$8,733.77$11,037.69$14,718.52$12,736.92$13,666.22
19-Jan-24$13,714.66$8,098.91$11,165.01$14,141.86$12,237.90$13,130.79
22-Jan-24$13,613.02$7,924.37$11,226.37$13,552.64$11,728.01$12,583.70
23-Jan-24$13,693.33$7,786.08$10,744.82$13,498.06$11,680.78$12,533.02
24-Jan-24$15,171.87$7,901.72$10,680.44$13,639.35$11,803.04$12,664.21
25-Jan-24$15,074.30$7,523.45$10,810.84$13,712.06$11,865.96$12,731.71
26-Jan-24$14,908.23$7,520.33$10,658.96$13,789.80$11,933.23$12,803.90
29-Jan-24$14,593.67$7,606.06$10,415.57$13,938.33$12,061.77$12,941.81
30-Jan-24$14,614.65$7,439.79$10,326.46$13,996.45$12,112.06$12,995.78
31-Jan-24$14,936.48$7,396.53$10,112.67$13,662.09$11,822.72$12,685.32
01-Feb-24$15,209.44$7,087.49$10,050.72$13,324.30$11,530.41$12,371.68
02-Feb-24$14,564.96$7,370.18$10,349.24$12,584.91$10,890.56$11,685.16
05-Feb-24$13,929.74$7,396.00$10,424.90$11,910.17$10,306.66$11,058.65
06-Feb-24$14,599.46$7,167.47$10,367.61$12,428.47$10,755.18$11,539.90
07-Feb-24$14,228.27$7,216.26$9,908.42$12,483.91$10,803.16$11,591.37
08-Feb-24$14,575.89$8,420.73$9,907.14$12,406.34$10,736.03$11,519.35
09-Feb-24$14,629.85$8,360.03$9,903.86$12,328.77$10,668.91$11,447.33
12-Feb-24$14,842.58$8,379.73$9,755.83$12,131.44$10,498.14$11,264.10
13-Feb-24$14,774.04$8,350.97$9,639.77$12,161.81$10,524.43$11,292.30
14-Feb-24$14,361.80$7,949.58$9,306.01$11,978.56$10,365.85$11,122.16
15-Feb-24$13,925.14$7,734.02$9,316.27$11,407.03$9,871.26$10,591.48
16-Feb-24$13,071.90$7,341.48$8,234.21$10,487.11$9,075.20$9,737.33
20-Feb-24$12,006.31$6,468.29$7,689.72$9,703.49$8,397.08$9,009.74
21-Feb-24$11,656.06$5,400.65$7,164.82$9,592.14$8,300.72$8,906.36
22-Feb-24$11,285.58$5,319.60$7,192.55$9,408.90$8,142.15$8,736.21
23-Feb-24$11,242.73$5,109.28$7,845.81$9,336.84$8,079.79$8,669.31
26-Feb-24$11,073.27$5,245.64$7,442.96$9,250.76$8,005.30$8,589.37
27-Feb-24$11,124.08$5,114.01$7,293.48$9,428.45$8,159.07$8,754.37
28-Feb-24$11,288.27$5,031.39$7,201.11$9,342.31$8,084.53$8,674.38
29-Feb-24$11,179.73$5,058.02$7,328.40$8,976.41$7,767.89$8,334.64
01-Mar-24$10,654.89$5,073.36$7,234.81$8,355.02$7,031.75$7,693.39
04-Mar-24$10,241.34$4,664.50$7,226.68$7,791.36$6,557.37$7,174.37
05-Mar-24$10,756.19$4,645.01$7,139.13$8,397.45$7,067.47$7,732.46
06-Mar-24$10,524.89$4,654.66$6,890.67$8,511.37$7,163.34$7,837.35
07-Mar-24$11,092.19$4,557.65$6,931.79$8,642.75$7,273.92$7,958.33
08-Mar-24$11,164.57$4,515.48$7,300.14$8,759.36$7,372.06$8,065.71
11-Mar-24$10,674.24$4,765.09$7,506.99$8,752.34$7,366.15$8,059.24
12-Mar-24$11,604.73$4,799.03$7,758.95$8,952.06$7,534.24$8,243.15
13-Mar-24$12,045.72$5,468.73$8,337.96$10,616.71$8,935.25$9,775.98
14-Mar-24$12,548.21$5,906.94$8,909.32$11,524.81$9,699.52$10,612.16
15-Mar-24$11,555.54$5,883.67$9,605.42$10,621.67$8,939.42$9,780.54
18-Mar-24$10,722.82$5,606.45$9,268.43$9,879.21$8,314.55$9,096.88
19-Mar-24$10,892.73$4,572.90$8,594.93$9,817.50$8,262.61$9,040.06
20-Mar-24$11,176.49$4,881.00$8,081.76$9,841.47$8,282.78$9,062.12
21-Mar-24$11,274.41$5,237.98$8,372.72$9,989.56$8,407.42$9,198.49
22-Mar-24$12,160.70$5,384.47$8,506.28$10,139.85$8,533.90$9,336.88
25-Mar-24$12,085.52$5,007.81$8,446.71$10,993.77$9,252.58$10,123.17
26-Mar-24$15,356.67$4,806.75$8,800.83$11,122.91$9,361.27$10,242.09
27-Mar-24$15,673.69$7,478.53$8,667.51$12,552.45$10,564.40$11,558.42
28-Mar-24$15,938.48$9,382.04$9,182.74$16,006.75$13,471.61$14,739.18
29-Mar-24$15,642.77$8,960.66$12,071.88$15,383.58$12,947.14$14,165.36

The updated projection below outlines expected cash balances in the NYC central treasury from December 1, 2023 to March 29, 2024, incorporating guidance provided in the FY24 November Plan, and increased spending trends related to the asylum seekers, in particular.

The City’s cash position remains strong.  December 2023-March 2024 average cash balances are expected to be lower than last year, but higher than cash balances in FYs 2021 and 2022.

In the last three years the annual cash balance low occurred on December 1st.  We expect that this year’s cash low will also occur around that time, and will measure between $4.9 billion and $5.6 billion.  The seasonal low measured $3.966 billion in FY 2023, $1.338 billion in FY 2022, and $2.143 billion in FY 2021.

The forecast assumes a decline in personal income and PTET taxes compared to last year.  Meantime, business and sales taxes are expected to rise moderately year-over-year.

The forecast also assumes growing costs associated with providing shelter and services to over 65,000 asylum seekers currently in shelters and humanitarian emergency response and relief centers.  These expenditures are included in public assistance and other social services and vendor payments categories. H+H also receives funds for the operation of the City’s Humanitarian Emergency Response and Relief Centers (HERRCs).

Overall, cash balances are estimated to average $9.882 billion during the next four months compared to $11.445 billion during the same time last year.

Projection details are in the following pages of this document.

Inflows - NYC Cash Balances Monthly Detail ($ in Millions)

 InflowsDec-23Jan-24Feb-24Mar-24Dec-23-Mar-24
1Opening Balance5,353.289,440.4212,685.328,334.645,353.28
2Sales Tax1,081.41680.97816.87725.813,305.06
3Utility Tax32.2632.2632.2632.26129.03
4Commercial Rent Tax212.7115.369.8226.51464.38
5Personal Income Tax1,208.852,150.501,149.011,321.515,829.87
6General Corporation Tax1,365.06298.63107.681,640.523,411.89
7Banking Tax51118
8Unincorporated Business Tax327.89511.6182444.281,365.78
9Real Property Tax5,129.007,561.74284.81,244.9714,220.51
10Other Taxes311.81408.58227.85290.541,238.78
11Less Refunds All Taxes-104.57-104.57-104.57-104.57-418.28
12Total Taxes9,569.4111,556.072,606.695,822.8429,555.01
13Federal Welfare195.8747.19131.81430.31805.19
14Federal Education129.9211.2112.94174.53428.59
15Federal Community Development31.6217.1724.6725.3598.81
16Federal Other135.59236.17218.60167.11757.48
17Total Federal Aid493.00311.74488.03797.302,090.07
18NYS Welfare130.2231.92131.33525.25818.72
19NYS Health67.0740.641.32143.02252.05
20NYS Education1,052.9187.05232.103,887.355,259.40
21NYS Higher Education0.8662.041.47465.69530.05
22NYS Other125.5727.9961.84343.56558.96
23Total New York State Aid1,376.62249.63428.065,364.867,419.18
24NYS Revenue Sharing00000
25Other Intergovernmental Aid00000
26Total Intergovernmental0.000.000.000.000.00
27Water Board93.000.000.000.3693.36
28Interest Income73.4273.4273.4273.42293.67
29Fines and Forfeitures127.38127.38127.38127.38509.51
30Miscellaneous Revenue260.92232.7275.48354.211,123.32
31Senior College Tuition and Fees0175.500175.50
32Capital Interest1.031.031.031.034.13
33Housing Revenue1.341.341.341.345.37
34Total Miscellaneous557.09611.37478.65557.742,204.84
35Prior Federal Aid433.72133.8262.59419.261,249.36
36Prior NYS Aid136.06134.83162.03499.03931.95
37Total Federal And NYS Prior Aid569.77268.63424.62918.302,181.31
38Balance Sheet Inflows19.7719.7719.7719.7779.06
39Federal/State Capital38.1338.1338.1338.13152.52
40Transfers from Capital Proceeds172.00148.00250.002,644.003,214.00
41Payroll Taxes Inflows208.98212.56213.61270.93906.08
42Seasonal Borrowing00000
43Other Operating Inflow606.84492.03377.93457.51,934.29
44Total Other Inflows1,045.71910.48899.433,430.326,285.96
45Total Inflows13,611.6113,907.925,325.4816,891.3749,736.38

Outflows - NYC Cash Balances Monthly Detail ($ in Millions)

 OutflowsDec-23Jan-24Feb-24Mar-24Dec-23-Mar-24
1Payroll1,829.311,860.641,869.842,371.597,931.39
2Pensions772.96772.96772.96772.963,091.82
3Social Security188.63190.41191.55191.82762.40
4Health Plan522.18522.18522.18522.182,088.73
5Other PS70.3770.3770.3770.37281.47
6Total PS3,383.443,416.553,426.893,928.9114,155.81
7PA503.1594.5454.83533.472,085.90
8MA370.95412.35369.28485.531,638.11
9Other DOSS313.67319.34322.58332.831,288.42
10HHC476.07437.81216.22659.121,789.22
11TA00000
12HA11.1011.1011.1011.1044.41
13Lump Sum353.97227.92232.95260.141,074.97
14Vendor Payments2,485.312,032.192,538.732,204.549,260.76
15Other OTPS00000
16Total OTPS4,514.164,035.214,145.694,486.7317,181.79
17City Capital561.001,214.00484.001,309.003,568.00
18Other Outflow Capital61887556280
19GO Debt Service Funding0678.26238.090916.35
20NYCTFA Debt Service Funding00153.88153.88307.76
21Other Debt Service Funding00000
22Repay Seasonal Borrowing00000
23Payroll Taxes Outflow879.77888.04893.36900.523,561.69
24Other Outflows125.10342.94259.24225.61952.90
25Total Other Outflows1,626.873,211.252,103.572,645.019,586.70
26Total Outflows9,524.4710,663.029,676.1511,060.6540,924.29
27Net Flow4,087.143,244.90-4,350.685,830.728,812.08
28Ending Balance9,440.4212,685.328,334.6414,165.3614,165.36

Prepared by Irina Livshits, Division Chief

Published by the NYC Comptroller’s Office, Bureau of Budget

Francesco Brindisi, Executive Deputy Comptroller for Budget and Finance

Krista Olson, Deputy Comptroller for Budget

$242 billion
Aug
2022